I asked Anthropics Fable to predict the World Cup Group matches, these are the results
Because I was to lazy to think of what the world cup group results would actually be, I ofcourse asked it to the most powerful AI model available...
The output
Basis: team results over the past 8 years (2018–2026: World Cups, continental tournaments, qualifying), adjusted from a ranking/odds baseline. Times in CEST (NL); the date shown is the NL calendar date. Predictions generated 11 June 2026, before any match was played.
Title Favorites: Spain is the consensus favorite at +450, with France just behind at +450 to +500, followed by England (+700), Brazil (+800), and Portugal and Argentina (around +900).
The topscorers will be, ordered by most likely:
Kylian Mbappé
Harry Kane
Erling Haaland
Mikel Oyarzabal
Lionel Messi
Christiano Ronaldo
It ended with an interesting note though:
“Even the most likely single result hits roughly 40-60% of the time; expect a meaningful share of these to be wrong.”